The European Union’s primary carbon auction clearing price rose to €90.16/tCO₂ on 3 November, lifting the provisional fourth-quarter reference used to estimate future Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs for emissions-intensive imports. Auction-market tracking data put the quarterly volume-weighted average at approximately €86.35/tCO₂, about 4.9% above the European Commission’s official third-quarter CBAM certificate price.
The daily auction price was €0.73/tCO₂ higher than the €89.43/tCO₂ recorded on 2 November. The provisional fourth-quarter average had stood at €86.14/tCO₂ the previous day. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) provides the auction clearing prices used in the CBAM certificate-price calculation, but its daily auction price and the official CBAM reference are distinct figures.
During 2026, the European Commission calculates CBAM certificate prices using the quarterly volume-weighted average of relevant EU ETS auction clearing prices. The Commission is due to publish the official fourth-quarter price on 4 January 2027 and will move to weekly CBAM certificate pricing from 2027. The latest auction results strengthen expectations of a higher fourth-quarter price, but do not establish the binding price or change the calculation methodology.
Implications for importers and producers
The higher provisional average may increase the carbon-cost assumptions European importers incorporate into purchasing contracts and financial forecasts. It cannot be used alone to calculate final CBAM liability: the calculation must account for emissions subject to surrender obligations, relevant free-allocation adjustments and eligible deductions for carbon prices effectively paid in the country of production.
For Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Türkiye, the commercial implications centre on embedded emissions, verified actual-emissions data and pricing by European customers. Steel producers using lower-emission processes may have an advantage over more carbon-intensive competitors when regulatory requirements for reporting actual emissions are met. The impact varies by sector, installation and country of origin.
Aluminium producers face process emissions, electricity-related cost exposure and downstream product competition. Cement manufacturers must assess emissions associated with clinker and cement production under the applicable methodology. Electricity importers must distinguish default emissions factors from the conditions for recognising actual generation emissions.
Further carbon-price increases can raise anticipated certificate-funding requirements for importers and industrial traders. Banks financing carbon-intensive imports may assess larger working-capital buffers, additional collateral or contractual provisions allocating carbon-price changes between buyers and suppliers. These effects remain prospective until the final applicable carbon price and chargeable emissions are determined.