EU emissions allowance auction prices put the provisional fourth-quarter Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reference at €86.14/tCO₂e on 2 November, pointing to higher costs for covered imports. The volume-weighted average, calculated from auction prices available on that date, was approximately 4.6% above the European Commission’s official third-quarter CBAM certificate price, adding uncertainty to industrial purchasing and financial planning ahead of certificate sales in 2027.
The third-quarter price was €82.32/tCO₂e, making the provisional fourth-quarter average €3.82/tCO₂e higher. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) primary auction clearing price reached €89.43/tCO₂e on 2 November, above the fourth-quarter average recorded so far. Those auction results indicate upward pressure on the eventual reference price but do not establish the final figure.
The European Commission is scheduled to publish the official fourth-quarter CBAM price on 4 January 2027. During 2026, certificate prices are calculated quarterly using the volume-weighted average of relevant EU ETS auction results; weekly pricing begins in 2027. The current price signal does not amount to a newly adopted certificate price or a change to CBAM calculation rules.
CBAM-covered imports include iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity. Financial effects vary substantially by sector and production process. For a product with one tonne of chargeable embedded CO₂, a €3.82/tCO₂e increase would represent about €3.82 per tonne of product before other adjustments.
Chargeable exposure cannot be determined from an installation’s gross emissions alone. EU ETS free-allocation adjustments, applicable product benchmarks and eligible carbon-price deductions can materially reduce the actual certificate requirement. For steel and aluminium suppliers in Serbia and Montenegro, the price trend reinforces the importance of reliable actual-emissions information rather than unfavourable default values where more accurate data are permitted.
Electricity exporters’ exposure depends on the applicable emissions methodology and whether they are eligible to use actual emissions. European industrial customers may revise purchasing prices, add carbon-price adjustment clauses or ask suppliers to share emissions-related costs. Banks financing importers and industrial traders may face additional working-capital exposure once certificate purchasing begins.