European Union customs data recorded about 567 million euros of Serbian iron and steel imports and 448 million euros of aluminium imports in 2025. The figures show substantial trade but generally do not identify final users or which companies will bear Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism costs.
Germany and Slovenia were the largest directly recorded EU markets for Serbian aluminium in 2025. Verified product-level emissions data is becoming more important alongside physical specifications in sales to EU buyers.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately 140.2 million euros in 2026, rising to 161.4 million euros in 2029. Exporters will need timely, verifiable emissions data to support EU buyers’ reporting and commercial decisions.
Serbia’s estimated 2026 exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is €140.2 million, led by iron and steel. Electricity accounts for €21.8 million and faces compliance rules distinct from those for metals.
EU imports of Serbian iron and steel under HS72 reached €567 million in 2025, while a separate European Commission safeguards regulation cited 760,234 tonnes of Serbian imports in the product categories it examined. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance projects €89.1 million in iron-and-steel CBAM exposure for 2026 under its baseline assumptions.
Poland, Czechia and Hungary led direct EU imports of Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led aluminium imports. The country-specific rankings differ from the EU’s largest overall markets for CBAM goods.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimated potential 2026 exposure of 140.2 million euros under the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. EU importers carry the legal reporting and certificate obligations, but contract terms could shift costs to Serbian suppliers and their customers.
Hungary and Romania accounted for nearly 7 TWh of the 9.845 TWh of gross electricity imports attributed to Serbia by EU customs statistics in 2025. The totals do not identify which Serbian generating installations produced the electricity for EU carbon accounting.
EU mirror statistics show gross electricity imports reported from Serbia reached 9.84 TWh in 2025, underscoring the difficulty of tracing a power unit’s emissions and generating origin across regional grids. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated electricity-related exposure of around 21.8 million euros for 2026.
EU member states imported electricity worth €1,150.3 million from Serbia in 2025, while three flat-steel families exceeded €500 million. The trade values can guide Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism checks, but broad customs codes do not identify covered goods or determine emissions charges.
Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, rising to €161.4 million in 2029. Exporters will need to provide EU buyers with timely, verifiable emissions data to support reporting and contract negotiations.
European Union customs data recorded about €567 million of Serbian iron and steel imports and €448 million of aluminium imports in 2025. The figures show trade routes but generally do not identify final users or reveal who will bear Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism costs.
