Dutch bank ABN AMRO expects EU emissions allowances to average approximately €86/tCO₂ in the fourth quarter of 2026, underscoring the role of carbon-price risk in industrial purchasing contracts, import finance and investment decisions.
Forecast and market drivers
In research issued on 5 November, the bank maintained its fourth-quarter forecast and projected a 2026 annual average of €80/tCO₂. It expects the market to remain above €80/tCO₂ in early 2027, while recognising the sensitivity of allowances to energy prices, industrial demand and policy developments.
The forecast followed a rise in European carbon prices towards €90/tCO₂, supported by expectations concerning allowance availability and the operation of the Market Stability Reserve. The bank highlighted an anticipated transfer of around 190 million allowances into the reserve among the influences on supply.
Gas prices, weather and wind generation can also influence the allowance market. If electricity producers run more gas- or coal-fired generation when renewable output weakens, their demand for emissions allowances may rise, although the net effect depends on relative fuel prices and electricity consumption.
CBAM pricing and possible expansion
The bank’s EUA forecast is not an official CBAM certificate price. Under the 2026 arrangement, the European Commission establishes CBAM certificate references using quarterly weighted averages from relevant EU ETS auction results; weekly pricing is scheduled for 2027. Financial models should keep these measures distinct.
ABN AMRO also discussed the prospective downstream expansion of CBAM. Under one scenario, the customs value of imports exposed to the mechanism could be roughly three times the current level if selected machinery, components and other manufactured goods were included.
That estimate concerns a possible future legal scope, not a confirmed tripling of imports already subject to CBAM. Exact customs classifications, national shares and chargeable emissions would still need to be assessed if an expansion is adopted.
Linkage and importer exposure
On possible EU–UK carbon-market linkage, the bank expects 2027 to remain largely transitional and envisages greater convergence through 2027–2028, with a potential full link around 2029. The dates are analyst assumptions rather than agreed legal milestones.
For European importers of steel, aluminium, cement and fertilisers, carbon-price scenarios must be combined with the actual emissions attributed to the imported goods, relevant EU ETS free-allocation adjustments and any eligible foreign carbon-price deductions.
For Serbian and Montenegrin exporters, a higher carbon-price environment strengthens the commercial value of properly verified installation-level emissions information. Electricity exporters additionally need to establish whether their transaction satisfies the special conditions for using actual generation emissions.
Financing and shipment costs
Banks funding imports should assess the timing of certificate purchasing, contract pass-through clauses, credit lines and stressed prices rather than relying only on expected average carbon costs. Industrial project lenders should distinguish carbon revenue forecasts, current-law liabilities and proposed legislation.
The latest research supports a higher-carbon-price base case, but the eventual charge for each import shipment will depend on verified production data, the legally applicable methodology and the official certificate price for the relevant period.