Commercially scheduled electricity exports from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Croatia fell by almost 47% in the third quarter of 2026, while new regional analysis suggests Bosnian electricity could face the highest indicative carbon-border cost among monitored Western Balkan markets.
Falling scheduled exchanges
A country-level assessment released on 5 November, drawing on the Energy Community Secretariat’s 4 November monitoring report, put scheduled Bosnia-to-Croatia deliveries at 262 GWh, compared with 490 GWh in the same quarter of 2025. Scheduled transactions in the opposite direction fell to 456 GWh from 777 GWh, a decline of about 41%.
The difference between commercial schedules and physical operation was striking. Recorded physical flows from Bosnia to Croatia rose by approximately 31%, from 559 GWh to 730 GWh, even as scheduled commercial exports declined.
This divergence illustrates why electricity market analysis must distinguish contractual trade, transmission-system nominations and physical flows across an interconnected grid. Physical power can move through the network for reasons that do not correspond directly to bilateral commercial deliveries.
Indicative carbon-border costs
The analysis calculated an indicative electricity CBAM cost for Bosnia of around €94.50/MWh, compared with €85.70/MWh for Serbia and €80.59/MWh for Montenegro, using the specified reference emissions factors and carbon-price assumptions.
These are modelled values rather than charges actually paid on every shipment. The effective position of an EU importer depends on the applicable electricity CBAM methodology, any ability to use actual emissions and the details of the individual transaction.
For Bosnia’s predominantly hydroelectric generators, the distinction is commercially important. The low direct emissions of a hydro plant do not automatically eliminate the emissions factor applicable to an import of electricity from a country. Using actual emissions is conditional on documented contractual and physical arrangements and verification under EU rules.
The figures also do not demonstrate that CBAM caused the observed decline in scheduled exchanges. Hydro availability, thermal generation, internal demand, interconnector capacity, prices, trading strategy and the difference between schedules and physical flows all offer potential alternative explanations.
Commercial implications
For Elektroprivreda HZ HB and other Bosnian electricity suppliers, the commercial challenge is to document an eligible delivery chain where lower actual emissions are to be claimed, while also comparing prices after transmission costs, balancing and possible carbon charges.
For Serbian and Montenegrin traders, the country comparison offers useful inputs for power-trading models. The same wholesale spread can produce different net margins depending on origin, emissions treatment, actual delivery terms and the importer responsible for CBAM compliance.
Lenders financing cross-border power contracts should evaluate the achievable net margin rather than equating an exchange price spread with bankable revenue. Evidence packs should reconcile generation, nomination, metering, commercial settlement and any claim about origin or transit.
The new data signal pressure on Bosnian electricity trade, but the commercial and physical flow figures must be read together before drawing conclusions about carbon-border effects or future export capacity.