The United Kingdom accounted for approximately 6.5% of the EU’s extra-EU imports of goods in the current CBAM product universe by customs value in 2025, according to a new analysis of Eurostat Comext records published on 5 November.
Import value and sector mix
The analysis estimated EU imports of covered goods from the UK at €7.28 billion, placing Britain behind China and Türkiye among supplier origins by value. This is a measure of customs value, not volume, embedded emissions or certificates payable.
Of the UK total, iron and steel accounted for an estimated €4.37 billion, aluminium for €1.58 billion and electricity for €1.16 billion. The remaining covered goods contributed around €170 million on the rounded sector breakdown.
Steel therefore represented approximately 60% of the UK value total, aluminium about 22% and electricity around 16%. These proportions refer only to the estimated UK-origin CBAM goods basket, not to shares of total EU consumption or European industrial production.
Possible effects of an exemption
The analysis is timely because the EU and the UK are discussing possible links between their emissions-trading systems and the eventual treatment of British exports under carbon-border measures.
A future origin exemption could have substantial consequences for EU customers buying British steel or aluminium. Yet the value of potentially affected imports cannot be interpreted as a carbon-tax saving. A certificate requirement depends on chargeable emissions, the applicable reduction for EU ETS free allocation, eligible domestic carbon-price deductions and the legal provisions in force for the relevant period.
The trade dataset also covers calendar year 2025, before the EU definitive CBAM regime began on 1 January 2026. It does not by itself measure changes in trade following the start of certificate obligations or indicate the volume of goods imported under the current regime.
Limits of the trade data
The publicly described data do not provide the comparable UK-origin CN8 quantities and customs values for the prior month or the corresponding period of 2024 needed to calculate robust market-share changes, year-on-year tonnage movements or implied EUR-per-tonne prices.
For electricity, the unit distinction is especially important. Customs values in euros must not be confused with traded MWh. Any comparison of electricity quantities should use electricity-specific physical units and examine transmission and scheduling conditions.
Implications for trade and compliance
If a future EU–UK agreement grants preferential treatment, companies in Serbia, Montenegro, Türkiye and Ukraine could face a different competitive landscape when selling covered products into the EU. The exact effect would depend on whether and how the exemption is legally implemented.
EU importers should keep a country-origin exposure matrix at exact CBAM CN-code level and separate existing-law compliance from draft scenarios for carbon-market linkage. Lenders should avoid using aggregate customs value as a proxy for the cost of future certificates.
The new analysis quantifies the scale of trade potentially touched by EU–UK negotiations, but it does not establish an exemption, a new import-share trend or a measurable financial benefit for British exporters.