EU imports of iron and steel products and aluminium totalled €91.29 billion in 2025, or 82% of imports under current Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) codes. That concentration puts metal supply chains serving construction, engineering, vehicles and equipment manufacturing at the centre of the mechanism’s likely commercial effects. The 82% figure is a share of trade value, not of carbon emissions or future CBAM certificate payments.
Iron and steel products covered by Chapters 72 and 73 accounted for €60.95 billion and 57.73 million tonnes. Aluminium products represented €30.34 billion and 9.14 million tonnes. The difference in value per tonne reflects product mix and market pricing, while environmental costs depend on production routes and installation-specific emissions.
A tonne of high-grade manufactured metal cannot be treated as equivalent to a tonne of primary or semi-finished material for all commercial or emissions purposes. China was the leading non-EU origin for CBAM-covered steel by mass, supplying 9.07 million tonnes in 2025. Türkiye supplied 7.43 million tonnes, the second-largest amount among listed non-EU origins, while Russia supplied 5.17 million tonnes, the third-largest.
Exposure depends on suppliers and contracts
CBAM-covered metal products may reach EU rolling mills, service centres, pipe producers, building-products suppliers or component factories. The final buyer of transformed goods need not be the importer of record, making contracts and traceability important for identifying which business absorbs a carbon-cost change.
EUROFER’s October 2026 outlook said EU crude steel production fell to a record 125.8 million tonnes in 2025 and forecast apparent steel consumption growth of only 0.1% in 2026. Weakness in the European steel market cannot be attributed to CBAM alone: global overcapacity, energy costs, demand and other trade measures are also important.
The phase-out of free allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) means domestic and imported producers face evolving carbon economics over time. For metal-intensive manufacturers, useful CBAM analysis combines customs classifications with process routes and supplier disclosures. Buyers should compare like-for-like products, separate direct and indirect exposure, and test whether contracts allow carbon costs to pass down the supply chain. Competitive outcomes will depend on individual mills, smelters, processors and industrial purchasing agreements.