China was the largest origin by value for European Union trade in goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2025, with supplies worth 17.09 billion euros. Türkiye led by mass, supplying 14.81 million tonnes, according to Eurostat-based calculations. The different leaders show why national value and volume rankings do not, on their own, describe suppliers’ commercial position.
Türkiye’s CBAM-code trade was valued at 10.83 billion euros. Britain recorded 7.28 billion euros, India 5.30 billion euros and Russia 4.89 billion euros, the calculations show. Differences in product mix, metal prices and industrial structure can help explain why the country with the most trade by value is not the leader by tonnes.
Norway and Switzerland also appeared as large origins in trade statistics, but their goods are exempt under the relevant CBAM origin provisions. China is a major supplier of steel and aluminium; Türkiye combines significant steel volumes with aluminium and cement. Egypt is prominent in fertilisers, while the Western Balkans are especially consequential for electricity connections with neighbouring EU markets.
Recorded trade value should not be treated as equivalent to CBAM financial liability: doing so risks overstating the addressable compliance market and obscuring differences between more carbon-intensive product streams. A supplier’s commercial opportunity depends on the precise product code, installation technology, embedded emissions and delivery reliability, rather than national totals alone.
For EU importers, assessing suppliers under CBAM is an industrial procurement stress test. They need to compare delivered product prices with carbon-certificate costs after statutory adjustments, transport, tariff treatment and quality requirements. A foreign plant with higher invoiced prices but verified low emissions can be competitive against a cheaper producer whose emissions are assessed using unfavourable default values.
Weak emissions evidence can create administrative risk even when the underlying production process is relatively clean. Cross-border industrial groups also need to account for materials imported into one EU country and incorporated into products made in another. To identify suppliers’ commercial advantages, trade corridors should be recorded from the non-EU installation to the EU importer and onward processing plant, rather than reduced to an origin-destination pair.