China, Türkiye and India supplied more than €33 billion worth of goods covered by existing European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) codes in 2025, according to Eurostat-based calculations. Their combined trade value shows the scale of supply to European buyers, but does not determine which country or producer is most competitive under CBAM. China supplied €17.09 billion worth of the goods, Türkiye €10.83 billion and India €5.30 billion; Eurostat is the source of the trade data used in the calculations.
The three countries are important to European metal supply chains, but country-level figures conceal differences between producers and installations. A blast-furnace steel plant, a scrap-based electric arc furnace mill and an aluminium smelter can have materially different emissions profiles, depending on direct process emissions and precursor sourcing. Installation-level evidence can therefore matter more than national averages.
Emissions evidence and certificate costs
The European Commission set the CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (t CO2e) in the third quarter of 2026, up from €75.28 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in the second quarter. The final CBAM cost for a tonne of imported metal cannot be calculated simply by multiplying the certificate price by a national emissions factor.
EU buyers must compare verified actual emissions data or relevant defaults, the product-specific free-allocation adjustment, possible recognition of a carbon price effectively paid abroad and the applicable certificate price. Legal calculation methods, emissions boundaries and adjustment benchmarks also affect the calculation, alongside conventional logistics and quality factors. Customs values for 2026 imports are not the same as the CBAM certificates an importer will surrender in 2027.
Competitiveness effects will vary by product and customer. A supplier with robust factory-level evidence may preserve market access even if its production technology remains carbon-intensive, while a lower-emitting exporter could lose a potential advantage if it cannot demonstrate its actual performance.
Procurement shifts toward verified carbon data
Procurement teams should compare bids for the same CN8 product and technical specifications, assessing at least three suppliers on cost, verified emissions, delivery reliability and legal documentation. The sourcing comparison may also change negotiating power along the supply chain.
Possible supplier responses include cleaner production, better emissions metering, contractual guarantees, revised delivery arrangements and changes to EU buyers’ sourcing mix. Provable carbon content is joining price and quality as a basis for competition in European industry.