Scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 14.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, even as regional day-ahead trading volumes rose 26.7%. The Energy Community Secretariat reported the figures in its third-quarter assessment, covering January to September 2026 and comparing activity with the corresponding periods in 2025.
For the first nine months of 2026, gross scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets declined 17.8% year on year. In the third quarter, they rose 8.6% from the previous quarter but remained below the same period in 2025, according to the assessment.
Day-ahead trading on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh in the quarter. The contrasting trends show expanding organised regional market activity alongside lower scheduled exchanges with the EU than a year earlier.
Price gaps and export flows
Across eight Western Balkan-EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter 2026 hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. The Energy Community said a wholesale price spread that had supported cross-border arbitrage may no longer provide an attractive margin after applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are considered.
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary fell 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. Montenegro’s scheduled electricity exports to Italy increased approximately 80%, showing that export flows moved differently across the region.
The Secretariat cautioned that the changes cannot be attributed exclusively to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Generation, demand, hydrology and available interconnection capacity influence trading patterns, while trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also affect commercial flows.
Carbon costs in trade calculations
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 per tonne in the second quarter. Actual electricity-import costs also depend on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
The assessment said traders increasingly need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities. Wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are becoming interconnected commercial variables in cross-border electricity trade.
Western Balkan generators may face a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and electricity that can be sold profitably to EU customers, the Secretariat said. A potential structural discount may emerge in exporting markets where generation is carbon-intensive or low-carbon production cannot meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the assessment identifies the challenge as preserving efficient electricity trade while adapting to a market where the regulatory treatment of carbon can determine whether a cross-border transaction is profitable.