Germany bought about €75 million of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles in 2025, making it the largest directly recorded EU market, followed by Slovenia at €72 million. As the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) affects the trade, verified product-level emissions data is becoming increasingly important alongside alloy, gauge and surface-quality specifications.
EU imports of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles under HS76 totalled $505.7 million, approximately €448 million, in 2025. France bought €64 million, while Croatia and Romania bought €36 million and €35 million respectively. The country figures record customs-entry markets, not the factories that ultimately incorporated the metal into construction systems, machinery or transport equipment.
Processed products and export markets
EU imports included about €149 million of Serbian aluminium plate, sheet and strip under HS7606, €79 million of containers under HS7612, about €62 million of other aluminium articles under HS7616 and around €41 million of profiles under HS7604. The mix indicates trade in processed metal rather than only primary smelting.
Serbian aluminium scrap under HS7602 was also traded, but it is not covered by the initial CBAM annex and should be excluded from a precise CBAM trade total. German and Slovenian processors can aggregate metal purchases and produce components for customers across several EU markets, further separating the customs destination from the eventual manufacturing customer.
Impol Seval, a major Serbian rolled-aluminium producer, reported about €89.7 million in export receipts in the first six months of 2025. It named Germany, Italy and France among its key markets. Those disclosures indicate industrial export demand and domestic rolling capacity, but do not establish that specific shipments went to vehicles, aircraft or branded consumer packaging; identifying such end uses would require contract or supply-chain evidence.
Emissions data and estimated costs
For aluminium under current CBAM coverage, the cost passed on to an EU purchaser depends on direct embedded emissions, the production route, precursor inputs and verification. Electricity procurement remains important to plant competitiveness and buyers’ broader sustainability requirements, but indirect electricity emissions should not simply be added to the initial CBAM certificate calculation for aluminium.
Suppliers need to distinguish legal emissions reporting from voluntary low-carbon commercial claims. A Serbian exporter may negotiate with a distributor carrying inventory risk and certificate exposure, while a separate manufacturing customer specifies the alloy and carbon data. Identifying which party sets commercial terms can be as important as identifying the customs destination.
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated aluminium CBAM exposure at €19.5 million in 2026 and projected it to remain near that level through much of the projection period. Its estimate assumes 2025 exports remain fixed and uses default emissions values. Actual obligations could differ considerably as transaction patterns, verified factory emissions and EU certificate prices change.
The Ministry of Finance also modelled possible relief if EU authorities recognise carbon prices paid in Serbia, but that recognition must not be assumed automatically. Suppliers able to allocate emissions to specific product batches, disclose consistently across trading entities and demonstrate physical quality and documentary compliance are more likely to defend access to European manufacturing chains than those relying on a generic low-carbon figure.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer