Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated the country’s 2026 exposure to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at €140.2 million, with iron and steel carrying the largest cost. Electricity accounts for €21.8 million and is subject to different compliance rules, making Serbia’s exposure mix distinct from the composition of EU-wide CBAM imports.
Steel and aluminium were the dominant commercial categories among the EU’s CBAM-coded imports in 2025. EU import-value figures put steel at €60.95 billion and aluminium at €30.34 billion, out of €111.23 billion for all CBAM-coded goods. Together, the metals were valued at €91.29 billion, or about 82.1% of the total.
That 82.1% is a market-weighted share of imports from all non-EU origins, including exempt suppliers, and does not represent the share of Serbian exports covered by CBAM. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimates that more than 12% of Serbian exports to the EU fall within the mechanism’s scope.
Serbia’s exposure spans metals and electricity
In the Ministry of Finance’s 2026 baseline assessment, iron and steel account for €89.1 million of estimated exposure, followed by electricity at €21.8 million and aluminium at €19.5 million. Cement and fertilisers make up the remainder. Steel producers face the country’s largest estimated cost, while electricity is also an important part of Serbia’s trade with the EU.
A separate measure, based on Serbia’s 2024 export composition, puts steel at 4.5 percentage points of exports to the EU, aluminium at 2.0 points and electricity at 4.7 points. The CBAM-related share was approximately 11.7%, with metals representing roughly 56% of that share. These Serbian export figures and the EU import values refer to different years and denominators, so they should not be treated as interchangeable annual rankings.
The product-level differences also matter: a coated-steel coil destined for a processor does not have the same compliance considerations as a megawatt-hour of Serbian electricity entering Hungary’s power system. A single approach would not account for those distinct trade flows.
Emissions data and product codes determine steel costs
For covered steel items, the CBAM charge is not a simple surcharge on invoice value. It depends on a plant’s direct process emissions, verified production route, eligible input materials and the EU free-allocation adjustment. Where actual emissions data are unavailable, importers may use regulatory default values.
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance warned that default factors may exceed actual domestic emissions in some cases. Lower-emission Serbian installations that cannot substantiate their performance with actual data may therefore be penalised by the defaults. Producers’ ability to retain customers depends on actual emissions, data assurance and product economics for the relevant CN8 code, rather than the EU-wide metals share alone.
The initial emissions scope for covered aluminium products under the current CBAM framework applies in 2026 and focuses on direct emissions. Producers may nevertheless face commercial pressure to disclose electricity sources and indirect footprints for customers’ decarbonisation strategies. A buyer’s preference for low-carbon electricity may extend beyond the electricity emissions included in the legal CBAM certificate calculation; those measures should not be conflated in pricing.
Serbian producers face international competition
Serbian producers compete with suppliers from China, Türkiye and India, as well as with lower-carbon plants inside the EU. The immediate policy priorities identified for Serbia are to establish a credible plant-level steel emissions baseline, map mill products accurately to EU customs codes and treat electricity trade separately.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer