Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately 140.2 million euros in 2026, as exporters face growing demands to document emissions alongside meeting price and delivery terms. The projection is not a tax bill or recorded revenue, but CBAM-related commercial costs could affect supplier contracts and access to EU customers.
CBAM applies to specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, goods matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes accounted for 111.23 billion euros of extra-EU imports, measured as the border value of goods rather than the value of certificates owed. That total includes imports from exempt source countries; after those origins are excluded, about 94.74 billion euros remains potentially relevant, before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for 60.95 billion euros of the EU’s 2025 imports covered by the codes, while aluminium represented 30.34 billion euros. Serbia is not a leading origin in the overall total, but its trade is concentrated in corridors linking Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other regulated products crossing into the EU from Serbian businesses.
Exposure extends across Serbian manufacturing
More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope, the Finance Ministry has calculated. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Industries connected to those sectors account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, making compliance relevant to wider manufacturing and not only large producers.
The ministry’s baseline scenario puts exposure at 161.4 million euros in 2029. Its 2026 estimate comprises 89.1 million euros for steel and iron, 19.5 million euros for aluminium and 21.8 million euros for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36. They are projections, not invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Emissions data feed into buyer decisions
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants carry the formal reporting and certificate obligations. Costs related to CBAM could nevertheless be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses, or forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Commercial negotiations will depend on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source goods with lower embedded carbon elsewhere.
For Serbian steel, metalworking and power businesses, the commercial question is whether they can retain EU customers, rather than whether Serbia can influence the wider EU carbon market. Suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by 30 September 2027. Plants that cannot provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route is commercially useful only if emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the EU importer’s declaration process.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer