More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the European Union fall within the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to the Finance Ministry. The ministry estimates that around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected. It also cites more than 3,500 Serbian businesses linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Those industries account for around 4.5% of employment.
EU CBAM-relevant import values and covered product codes
Across the EU, imports matching CBAM-related customs codes were worth €111.23 billion in 2025, measured by the border value of goods rather than the value of certificates. The figure includes imports from source countries exempt from CBAM rules. Excluding those origins leaves about €94.74 billion of potentially relevant trade before product, importer and emissions tests.
Within that total, iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of EU imports under the relevant codes in 2025. Aluminium accounted for €30.34 billion. The ministry says Serbia is not a leading origin across the full import total, but its trade is concentrated along corridors connecting Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets.
The ministry describes Serbia’s immediate exposure as narrower than the overall EU import picture. It covers metals, electricity and other CBAM goods shipped from Serbia.
Projected Serbia CBAM exposure through 2029
The Finance Ministry estimates Serbia’s CBAM-related economic exposure at approximately €140.2 million in 2026. The estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The ministry characterizes the figure as a projection rather than a tax bill or recorded revenue.
The ministry adds that CBAM rules could still affect supplier costs and access to EU customers. Under its baseline scenario, projected exposure rises to €161.4 million by 2029. The calculations use a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36.
The ministry states that the projections do not represent invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Reporting obligations and information needed from Serbian suppliers
The formal reporting and certificate obligations sit with EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants, according to the ministry’s description of how compliance is handled. It also notes that commercial costs may be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses. Similar cost pass-throughs may extend to downstream processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers.
The ministry says negotiations may depend on whether plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere. It also specifies that EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026.
The same timeline requires certificates associated with those imports to be surrendered by September 30, 2027. Serbian suppliers are expected to provide product classifications, production data for individual installations and emissions evidence early enough for buyers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Commercial impact tied to emissions documentation acceptance
The ministry warns that plants failing to provide required information risk losing business even if their carbon performance is competitive in practice. It says lower-carbon production has commercial value only when emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted in the importer’s declaration.
For Serbian exporters, the immediate test described by the ministry is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain EU customers under these documentation requirements.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer