Energy Community Secretariat data for the third quarter of 2026 show scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets down 14.3% year on year, while regional day-ahead trading volumes rose 26.7%. The assessment covers January to September 2026 and compares activity with the corresponding months of 2025. It reports that gross scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% across the first nine months of 2026 year on year.
In the third quarter, scheduled exchanges increased by 8.6% compared with the previous quarter, but remained below the same period in 2025. Day-ahead trading on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh during the quarter, according to the assessment. The Secretariat said the changes in trading activity cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM.
Day-ahead volumes rise while cross-border schedules remain below 2025
The Secretariat linked cross-border flow dynamics to multiple factors beyond CBAM, including generation levels, demand conditions, hydrology and available interconnection capacity. It characterised the results as regional organised-market activity expanding while scheduled exchanges with the EU stayed under their 2025 levels. The assessment presented these figures as part of its third-quarter 2026 review.
Price spreads exceed €20/MWh in over half of hours
Across eight Western Balkan-EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter 2026 hours. The share was 21.7% in the year-earlier comparison, according to the assessment. It said a wholesale price spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may not leave an attractive margin once applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are included.
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary fell 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. Montenegro’s scheduled exports to Italy increased by approximately 80%. The assessment said these movements indicate that CBAM exposure does not alone determine commercial flows, with hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also affecting outcomes.
CBAM certificate pricing and emissions methodology affect import costs
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at EUR 82.32/t CO2, up from EUR 75.28/t CO2 in the second quarter. The Commission also tied relevant costs to the applicable emissions methodology and eligible deductions, alongside other regulatory conditions. The Secretariat said these elements are among factors relevant to electricity import costs.
The Secretariat reported that Western Balkan generators may face a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and electricity that can be sold profitably to EU customers. It pointed to a potential structural discount in exporting markets where generation is carbon-intensive or where low-carbon production cannot meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions. For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, it identified the challenge as preserving efficient electricity trade while adapting to a market where carbon regulation can determine whether cross-border transactions are profitable.