Poland, Czechia and Hungary were the leading direct EU markets for Serbian iron and steel in 2025, while Germany, Slovenia and France led imports of Serbian aluminium, according to 2025 trade data. The pattern differs from the EU’s largest overall markets for goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and shows that EU-wide rankings do not identify Serbia’s principal buyers.
Steel trade is concentrated in central Europe
EU imports from Serbia in the HS72 iron and steel category were valued at $640.7 million, or approximately €567 million at the 2025 average exchange rate. Poland was the largest direct EU market, with imports worth €125.3 million, followed by Czechia at €77.8 million and Hungary at €71.9 million.
Italy imported €53.4 million of Serbian HS72 goods, and Slovenia imported €10.0 million. Germany’s direct imports were €4.9 million, far below what its prominence in Serbia’s broader bilateral exports might suggest. Bulgaria and Romania were also significant direct markets, although no import values were specified for either country.
The EU-wide CBAM-code ranking covers imports from all extra-EU origins, not Serbia-specific purchases. Italy accounted for 17.6% of the value of those imports in 2025, while Germany and the Netherlands each accounted for about 12.7%. The figures cover steel, aluminium, fertilisers, power and other goods subject to CBAM.
Germany, Slovenia and France lead aluminium imports
Imports from Serbia in the HS76 aluminium and articles category totalled $505.7 million in 2025, approximately €448 million. Germany was the largest direct reporting market at €75.0 million, followed by Slovenia at €72.2 million and France at €64.0 million.
Poland imported €25.4 million of Serbian aluminium, Hungary €14.3 million and Italy €12.1 million. Czechia’s imports were €6.0 million. Croatia and Romania also followed the three largest markets, but no values were specified for them. Slovenia’s aluminium imports contrasted with its €10.0 million of direct Serbian iron and steel imports.
The direct-import figures are indicative euro conversions of US-dollar trade values using the 2025 average exchange rate of €1 = $1.1300. HS72 and HS76 are chapter-level product categories that include goods such as ferrous and aluminium scrap, which are outside CBAM Annex I coverage. The totals indicate trade orientation and a possible compliance pipeline, but do not measure precisely Serbia’s CBAM-liable sales; an eight-digit Combined Nomenclature match is needed to determine whether an individual delivery is covered.
Customs destinations do not identify final customers
Customs clearance at a port or distribution hub does not establish where a material is ultimately consumed. The importer of record may be a merchant, service centre or regional distribution company rather than the industrial customer. The party paying customs-related costs may also differ from the purchaser that determines a material’s long-term competitiveness.
A Serbian steel coil entering Poland could later be rolled, coated or shaped for machinery sold in Germany. Aluminium reported at Slovenia’s border could be shipped onward as a semi-finished product or processed in several countries, leaving the final customers unidentified by country totals. The direct-import pattern points to manufacturing and distribution clusters in central Europe, not to the largest EU customs markets buying every Serbian product.
Steel suppliers should engage closely with buyers and processors in Poland, Czechia and Hungary, while aluminium exporters should prioritise contract chains in Germany, Slovenia and France. Exporters need to identify both the party legally responsible for CBAM as the declarant and the industrial customer that controls technical specifications.
If importers use conservative default emissions values while awaiting verified plant information, purchase prices could include a carbon premium greater than the producer’s actual emissions would justify. Exporters seeking to defend market share need documented production and emissions information that can travel with the goods, alongside a market price.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer