Germany’s CBAM imports reach around 14.1 billion euros, complicating cost pass-through

Germany represented 12.7% of the European Union’s extra-EU imports of goods under existing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) codes in 2025, equivalent to around 14.1 billion euros based on a rounded Eurostat country share. The scale of demand matters to steel and aluminium suppliers because imported material can pass through several firms before reaching automotive, machinery and infrastructure supply chains.

Vehicle manufacturers may buy pressings, castings, structural parts and subassemblies from tier-one or tier-two suppliers rather than purchase the originating metal. Those suppliers may source sheets and profiles from processors using both imported and domestically produced feedstock. Each commercial stage has its own contract terms, inventory policy and access to emissions documentation.

That structure may leave the entity expected to surrender CBAM certificates without enough negotiating power to pass the full cost down the supply chain. Low-emission imported material backed by credible installation data may compare differently under CBAM with high-emissions products relying on default values. For manufacturers, the concern is not only the price of imported metal: evidence gaps in a less transparent supply base can also create cost and delivery uncertainty.

Novelis manufactures and recycles aluminium products for automotive and packaging markets at its German operation in Nachterstedt. Klöckner & Co operates a network of metal-processing and service-centre businesses. Those examples illustrate the role of intermediate processors but do not establish the origin of every tonne supplied to a vehicle maker.

The European Steel Association reported weak demand, low capacity utilisation and continued pressure on exports in 2026, with carbon policy only one element of a difficult steel-market environment. EU producers also face energy, wage and capital costs, while the gradual phase-out of EU Emissions Trading System free allowances changes their exposure.

A meaningful German CBAM study would combine CN8 import values with metal-processing locations, component procurement and the identities of actual buyers where public documentation supports a link. It would also test whether contracts explicitly separate raw-material prices from carbon adjustments.

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