Egyptian hot-rolled coil could face a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) cost of approximately €24 per tonne with acceptable verified emissions data, compared with approximately €228 per tonne under default values, according to a model presented in Cairo on 4 November. Nicole Voigt, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group (BCG), presented the analysis at the 19th Arab Steel Summit.
The model examined coil made through a direct-reduced-iron and electric-arc-furnace route. It put the difference between the two CBAM cost estimates at €204 per tonne and cited a European reference carbon cost of around €36 per tonne for comparable hot-rolled coil production under its assumptions.
The figures are scenario estimates, not established customs charges for every Egyptian shipment. Final liability depends on the product’s CN classification, relevant emissions, year of import, applicable adjustments under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and eligible deductions. The presentation said the gap between verified-data and default-value costs underlines the commercial importance of installation-level emissions accounting. Verified records could improve delivered-price competitiveness for exporters whose actual emissions are significantly below the regulatory default.
Proposed quotas cover exports unevenly
The presentation said the interaction of European Union import quotas, tariffs and CBAM was becoming decisive for Middle Eastern and North African steel exporters. Proposed steel tariff-rate quota allocations could accommodate more than 60% of historical Egyptian steel exports to the European Union, compared with less than 30% of historical exports from Saudi Arabia, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates.
Those percentages model coverage of historical exports under proposed arrangements; they are not shares of total European Union steel imports or evidence of actual 2026 shipment changes. The presentation said the same principles apply to Serbian and Southeast European steelmakers: lower emissions may improve carbon competitiveness, but trade restrictions can prevent producers from turning that advantage into additional European Union sales.
For banks assessing industrial investments, the analysis recommended considering actual-versus-default emissions sensitivity alongside customs duties, quota access, manufacturing costs and freight. It said independent emissions verification could have substantial commercial value, while carbon efficiency alone would not guarantee access to the European market.