Western Balkan electricity exports to the European Union fell 17% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, as trade economics reflected carbon-border costs alongside wholesale prices and transmission constraints. The Energy Community Secretariat issued its third quarterly CBAM electricity monitoring report on 4 November, covering exchanges between the six Western Balkan contracting parties and neighbouring EU electricity markets.
Gross scheduled exchanges between the region and the EU declined 14.3% year on year, but increased 8.6% compared with the second quarter of 2026. Gross electricity exchanges in the first nine months of 2026 were 17.8% below the corresponding period of 2025. The Western Balkans remained a net electricity importer.
Flows varied by route. Montenegro’s electricity exports to Italy rose by approximately 80%, while Serbia’s exports to Hungary fell 21.6%, despite wholesale price differences that might otherwise have encouraged additional Serbian sales. National generation availability, electricity demand, interconnector conditions and the effective carbon cost of exports contributed to the divergent movements.
Price spreads and carbon exposure
Electricity price differentials across monitored Western Balkan-EU borders exceeded €20/MWh during 53.9% of third-quarter hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. The figures measure price spreads, not the margin available to traders after costs.
Transmission charges, congestion, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM costs can substantially change the economics of delivering electricity. CBAM is particularly relevant to power generated from emissions-intensive sources, while the effective carbon cost is one of several factors affecting cross-border trade.
Where eligibility based on actual emissions cannot be demonstrated, the applicable regulatory emissions factor can materially increase the effective cost of electricity imported into the EU. Emissions evidence and regulatory eligibility are therefore increasingly important to the commercial competitiveness of cross-border electricity trade.
The reduction in scheduled exports cannot be attributed entirely to CBAM: changes in generation, energy demand, transmission availability and market conditions also affected transactions. For Serbian producers and traders, the figures underscore the need to calculate margins after carbon-border exposure rather than rely on wholesale exchange spreads alone.
Montenegro’s increased deliveries to Italy show that export opportunities remain available during the regulatory transition, subject to the characteristics of individual transactions. Banks financing electricity exports and renewable generators should distinguish theoretical spreads from revenues supported by physically deliverable, contractually documented electricity.