European fertiliser importers’ CBAM compliance costs may flow through to farms, food processors and consumers, affecting agricultural input prices. Products classified under CBAM fertiliser codes generated 8.33 billion euros of extra-EU imports in 2025, according to trade figures compiled in October 2026.
Farmers are normally neither the importer nor the party filing the CBAM declaration, making any effect a matter of price transmission rather than a direct customs surcharge. In the broader fertiliser group, Russia supplied 4.92 million tonnes to the EU in 2025, Egypt supplied 3.75 million tonnes and Algeria 1.82 million tonnes.
Urea trade shows supply origins
Urea classified under CN 3102 10 offers a more precise measure of the supply chain. Egypt supplied 3.29 million tonnes to the EU in 2025, about 44.3% of extra-EU urea imports by mass. Russia supplied around 1.90 million tonnes and Algeria 1.17 million tonnes.
The price effect will depend on embedded emissions, the applicable CBAM certificate price, free-allocation adjustments, carbon prices recognised as already paid and competition between suppliers. Nitrogen production uses different energy feeds and manufacturing technologies with materially different emissions intensities, making CBAM data collection particularly valuable.
Costs move through commercial networks
Fertiliser shipments pass through wholesalers, port terminals, agricultural supply companies, blenders and cooperative networks before reaching farms. AGRAVIS Raiffeisen publicly operates fertiliser distribution networks, illustrating the connection between supply and final users; its presence in distribution does not establish the origin of an individual shipment.
Contracts and inventory timing also shape how costs may be passed on. A trader with stock bought before an increase in carbon-related purchasing costs may price differently from a competitor buying fresh shipments on the spot market. A credible exposure assessment requires matching the imported product to the importer of record, an identifiable non-EU production plant and the distribution chain to the farm customer.
The European Commission has separately discussed affordability and tariff measures in connection with fertilisers. Because fertilisers are inputs into food production, potential effects on agricultural input costs are politically sensitive. The commercial question is whether the market sees higher input prices, different origins, lower-emissions production or a combination of these outcomes.