Commercially scheduled electricity exchanges across borders between Western Balkan markets and EU member states fell 25% in the first quarter, as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) made evidence for actual-emissions treatment a key commercial issue for power exports, the Energy Community Secretariat reported. Day-ahead prices in Energy Community contracting parties averaged €30 per megawatt-hour below prices in neighbouring EU markets.
The price gap and lower exchanges came despite strong hydropower availability. Albania’s default electricity emission factor was zero and its exports continued, while comparable hydropower exports from markets such as Montenegro were sharply constrained. The observed correlations point to a changed commercial environment but do not establish that CBAM alone caused movements in electricity flows or prices. Hydrology, transmission constraints, market arrangements and fuel costs also affect trading.
Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Albania have different generation mixes, network configurations and market-coupling trajectories. For exporters, the central question is whether evidence for actual-emissions treatment can support a specific electricity import into the EU. Guarantees of origin, power-purchase agreements and generation measurements may help document renewable output, but must connect to the legally required physical-trade and verification records. Without that evidentiary chain, an EU importer may face country-level default emissions values even for low-emission generation.
The EU is considering changes to its electricity methodology as part of a broader CBAM downstream and anti-circumvention legislative package. The Council set its position in June 2026, and the European Parliament adopted amendments in September 2026. Final agreement was still pending in early November 2026, leaving power traders to price under the current regime while remaining able to respond to possible revisions concerning nomination, physical connection and market integration.
Cross-border electricity sales can affect wholesale price spreads, producer revenues, the competitiveness of industrial electricity buyers and the financeability of renewable projects. A credible regional dataset would record day-ahead prices, border capacities, nomination volumes, actual generation by technology, default emissions and documented CBAM treatment, while connecting the EU importer to any identifiable industrial off-taker. The difference between electricity traded and electricity provably compliant under CBAM is now a material commercial variable.