European steelmakers face more than €110/t in added costs for direct steelmaking and rolling after electricity and natural-gas prices rose since August, the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (IREPAS) warned in its November short-range outlook. Published on 2 November, the outlook said energy inflation was eroding the price support mills receive from import restrictions and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
IREPAS estimated natural-gas prices had climbed by approximately 150% over three months. Dutch TTF futures exceeded €100/MWh, compared with less than €40/MWh earlier in the period. The association described its cost figures as industry assessments; they are not independently audited changes for every European steel producer.
Higher costs pressure prices and output
Tighter market access for imports has not prevented European production economics from deteriorating. Reduced import quotas and CBAM have provided limited support to steel selling prices, as mills continue to seek business amid weak demand. IREPAS identified energy inflation as the immediate driver of rising costs and said there was no evidence that CBAM itself had caused the increase.
With production costs rising, mills could raise prices, accept lower margins or reduce output. IREPAS warned that European steel prices could rise further in the first quarter of 2027 if energy costs remain elevated or production is cut. Import tariffs, quotas and emissions-related costs may prevent foreign suppliers from exploiting any resulting price difference.
For Serbian and other Southeast European steel exporters, competitiveness depends on more than factory costs. The outlook identifies energy prices, transport routes, relevant EU safeguard quotas, anti-dumping duties and verified embedded emissions as factors affecting their market position. Electric-arc-furnace producers are exposed to electricity-price movements, while integrated steelmakers face different combinations of fuel, carbon and raw-material costs.
Logistics and investment add to sector pressures
IREPAS also cited scrap markets, logistics and delayed investment in European construction among pressures on the steel sector. Low river-water levels have raised transport costs, although industry participants said the impact on physical supply chains remained manageable.
For investment in lower-carbon steel production, IREPAS said financial projections need to account for energy-market volatility and the evolving carbon-border framework.