European aluminium buyers are reassessing sourcing strategies as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) introduces carbon-related obligations for covered imports from countries including Canada and Mozambique. Products originating in Norway and Iceland remain outside the mechanism’s scope. The change affects how suppliers are evaluated for compliance and documentation.
Eurostat recorded €29.5 billion in EU imports of aluminium and related products in 2024 under the broader HS Chapter 76 category. Canada, Mozambique, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are among the important suppliers of unwrought aluminium. The trade value includes products not currently covered by CBAM and does not represent the mechanism’s taxable import base.
Regulatory exclusion for Norwegian and Icelandic origin
Norway and Iceland benefit from a specific regulatory exclusion for originating products under CBAM. The exclusion relates to how the mechanism treats the country of origin rather than a determination that smelters generate no emissions. It is therefore distinct from assigning imported aluminium a zero emissions factor.
Electricity supply arrangements, production economics and commercial pricing remain relevant to Nordic producers’ competitiveness. The regulatory exclusion provides a difference in treatment under CBAM, but it does not establish that every Norwegian or Icelandic aluminium product has lower physical production costs or emissions than competing material. For European buyers, the distinction can matter where predictable compliance requirements and documentation are important.
Canadian and Mozambican import volumes reverse after December
Import patterns changed sharply around the start of CBAM’s financial phase. According to Fastmarkets, EU imports of unwrought aluminium from Canada reached approximately 175,000 tonnes in December 2025. Deliveries from Mozambique totalled around 105,000 tonnes over the same period.
By January 2026, Canadian shipments had fallen to approximately 10,000 tonnes. Mozambican deliveries approached zero by January 2026. The reversal indicates a response to import timing ahead of new obligations, while not establishing whether either supplier lost European market share permanently.
The figures also require assessment against physical supply developments. Industry reporting during 2026 highlighted operational pressures in certain African and Gulf aluminium supply chains, adding uncertainty about availability and continuity of shipments. European buyers therefore need to consider smelter output, contractual reliability and freight costs alongside CBAM exposure.
CBAM calculations focus on covered emissions methods
Aluminium smelting is highly electricity-intensive, but the current CBAM charge does not simply incorporate all indirect emissions linked to purchased electricity. The calculation focuses on emissions covered by the applicable methodology, including relevant direct process emissions and specified upstream inputs. A hydro-powered smelter may have a broader environmental profile without an automatic proportionate reduction in its certificate obligation.
Production route, process emissions and the treatment of covered precursor materials must be assessed separately for CBAM purposes. For covered imports, access to reliable, verified actual emissions data is commercially important. National averages alone may not distinguish an efficient individual facility from other producers operating within the same country.
Certificate reference price and physical premiums affect offers
The third quarter of 2026 saw a CBAM certificate reference price of €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. Buyers evaluating offers from covered suppliers need to determine the applicable benchmark-adjusted liability. They also need to assess whether sellers can provide verified actual emissions figures.
The certificate reference price is not a uniform surcharge on every tonne of aluminium. Final calculations depend on applicable emissions values, benchmark adjustments and any qualifying deductions for carbon costs already paid abroad. Physical aluminium premiums also influence comparisons between suppliers.
Regulatory treatment, transport expenses, metal availability and contract terms can all affect delivered pricing. As a result, comparisons based solely on national emissions averages or quoted metal prices can be incomplete. Buyers therefore need to account for both CBAM-related liability inputs and commercial delivery terms when comparing offers.
Sourcing decisions tied to compliance documentation and supply reliability
Norwegian and Icelandic suppliers may become more attractive for buyers seeking regulatory simplicity and predictable documentation under CBAM’s origin treatment. However, European aluminium demand operates at a scale that means exempt origins cannot automatically replace all other sources. Buyers still need access to suitable metal across contracts.
Long-term purchasing decisions depend on availability of metal, production reliability and verified process emissions data. Contractual allocation of carbon-related costs also remains part of supplier evaluation under CBAM exposure rules. These factors shape competition between exempt origins and producers whose exports remain subject to the mechanism.