European unwrought aluminium imports from origins subject to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), excluding exempt countries, rose ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase and then contracted in early 2026. The timing shift affected how market participants assess underlying demand and the pace at which carbon-related costs flow into manufacturers’ purchasing decisions. Data compiled by Fastmarkets show a December 2025 peak followed by a sharp drop in January 2026.
Fastmarkets reported EU imports of unwrought aluminium at approximately 675,000 tonnes in December 2025. This level was more than double the typical monthly range of around 280,000–360,000 tonnes. Imports then fell by 79% to 143,000 tonnes in January 2026. A partial recovery followed, with volumes rising to 183,000 tonnes in February.
December 2025 front-loading and supplier-specific swings
The reversal from December to January exceeded normal seasonal trading patterns, according to Fastmarkets. The decline was concentrated among origins exposed to CBAM default emissions values. Shipments from major suppliers showed marked differences over the same period.
Canadian deliveries were about 175,000 tonnes in December 2025, but dropped to around 10,000 tonnes in January 2026. Mozambique supplied approximately 105,000 tonnes in December and fell to near zero the following month. Bahrain shipments declined from roughly 85,000 tonnes to 19,000 tonnes.
Norwegian and Icelandic aluminium did not display the same pattern. Fastmarkets attributed this difference to those countries’ regulatory status placing their aluminium outside CBAM’s scope. The contrasting supplier movements were linked to how CBAM rules apply by origin.
Inventory effects on how CBAM liabilities are reflected
The import data indicate evidence of front-loading ahead of CBAM’s financial phase, while not showing that end-user demand disappeared. Aluminium imported and cleared through customs before the new liability took effect can remain in storage before entering manufacturing supply chains months later. This creates uncertainty for assessments that rely on import volumes alone.
A distinction also applies between metal held as inventory and replacement shipments entering after the relevant effective date. Metal cleared before the effective date avoided the new CBAM liability tied to subsequent imports, while shipments entering during 2026 fall under the applicable rules. Importers therefore need to separate inventories acquired before obligations applied from metal purchased afterward when assessing margins and future costs.
The inventory buffer can delay transmission of carbon-related costs through the supply chain. Manufacturers may continue using lower-cost stocks even as replenishment cargoes become more expensive under the new regime. This timing effect can influence when cost changes appear in procurement and pricing decisions.
Physical premiums respond to multiple cost drivers
The impact on physical aluminium premiums has been uneven so far. Fastmarkets identified only a moderate increase immediately after CBAM began, consistent with availability of inventories accumulated before the end of 2025. Premium movements therefore did not track CBAM alone in the early period.
Physical premiums can also be influenced by smelter outages, transport expenses, electricity costs, sanctions, regional demand and metal availability. As a result, an increase in a duty-paid premium cannot be attributed entirely to CBAM. The link between import costs and selling prices depends on how quickly existing stocks are consumed and how replacement shipments are priced.
Differences between acquisition costs for inventory and replenishment costs may become more significant for distributors and downstream manufacturers. Where contract pricing is set against earlier stock costs, later replacement purchases can change cost conditions. These dynamics affect how carbon-related charges translate into market pricing.
CBAM certificate reference prices and aluminium emissions coverage
The third quarter of 2026 CBAM certificate reference price rose to €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent, compared with €75.28 in the second quarter. For aluminium under the current CBAM framework, attention is on direct embedded emissions alongside specific rules for precursor materials. Indirect emissions from purchased electricity are not charged under the aluminium mechanism in the same way as direct emissions.
The final liability depends on benchmark adjustments and permitted deductions for carbon prices paid abroad. Because of these components, the quarterly certificate reference price alone is insufficient to calculate the full carbon cost of a shipment. The applicable calculation therefore requires more than reference-price information.
Downstream procurement risks as pre-2026 stocks run down
Downstream manufacturers may face delayed cost increases as pre-2026 inventories are exhausted. Purchasing contracts negotiated around lower-cost existing stocks could reach maturity when new deliveries carrying CBAM liabilities are required. Distributors with fixed selling prices without provisions to recover verified carbon-related costs may see pressure on margins as replenishment expenses rise.
The development of import volumes, warehouse inventories and the origin of replacement shipments will help determine whether the December 2025 surge mainly shifted purchases between reporting periods or contributed to longer-term restructuring of European aluminium sourcing. The available figures focus on import patterns rather than confirming changes in end-user demand levels.