Albania and North Macedonia entered the definitive CBAM period with sharply different positions in the regional electricity market. Their respective electricity links with Greece now illustrate the growing competitive divide between hydropower-based and fossil-intensive power systems.
Albania averaged €88.6/MWh in Q2 2026, while Greece averaged €90.2/MWh. The price spread narrowed to just €1.6/MWh, compared with €10.6/MWh in Q1. Despite the limited premium, scheduled Albanian exports to Greece remained broadly stable at around 196 GWh, increasing approximately 3% year on year.
Albania’s key advantage is its zero CBAM default emission factor. The country’s hydro-dominated generation mix can therefore remain competitive even when the day-ahead price differential is extremely narrow. During periods of strong hydrological conditions, the zero factor provides Albanian electricity with a structural advantage over power from more carbon-intensive neighbouring systems.
North Macedonia faced the opposite outcome. Its average day-ahead price of €91.6/MWh was close to Greece’s €90.2/MWh, leaving virtually no conventional export arbitrage opportunity. At the same time, North Macedonia’s national default emission factor of 0.887 tCO₂/MWh implied a CBAM cost of approximately €66.77/MWh.
Scheduled exports from North Macedonia to Greece fell 78% year on year, while Greek exports towards North Macedonia increased by around 70%. Growing solar and wind generation in Greece strengthened the country’s position as a regional electricity supplier, reversing its traditional role as a major destination for power exports from the Balkans.
The contrast shows that CBAM does not affect all non-EU electricity exporters equally. Albania can maintain access to the EU market without relying to the same extent on complex actual-value procedures because its default emission factor is zero. North Macedonia’s more carbon-intensive generation structure, by contrast, exposes its electricity exports to a substantial carbon cost, including power from renewable plants that may not yet be able to demonstrate installation-specific emissions.
This is creating a differentiated investment environment. Albanian hydropower, solar and wind projects can develop cross-border strategies around Greek and wider EU price benchmarks with comparatively limited carbon exposure. Renewable projects in North Macedonia require a stronger compliance and verification framework if they are to avoid being assessed against the national fossil-based emission factor.
The market effects could become self-reinforcing. A low-carbon electricity system can retain export revenues, strengthen its access to higher-value markets and attract additional renewable investment. A carbon-intensive system, meanwhile, can lose export opportunities, receive weaker investment signals and face greater difficulty financing the assets required for decarbonisation.
North Macedonia’s solar contribution is also potentially understated in regional datasets because part of its output is reported only as forecast generation, while distribution-connected production is largely absent. This data limitation is commercially relevant. A power system that cannot fully document its renewable generation risks appearing more carbon intensive than its actual production mix, potentially increasing its exposure to CBAM-related costs.
The two countries therefore face different strategic priorities. Albania needs to convert its zero-factor advantage into bankable cross-border PPAs and stronger transmission integration. North Macedonia needs to strengthen renewable metering, power-system data, contractual traceability and access to actual-value verification. The electricity border with Greece is already demonstrating the commercial consequences of that difference.