Türkiye stayed the European Union’s largest supplier of finished steel in the first half of 2026, even as deliveries fell and Asian producers increased competition. EUROFER reported that emissions verification and tariff-quota availability are becoming more prominent in the trade environment. Buyers are also weighing the total cost of supplying European customers.
EU data cited by EUROFER showed Türkiye accounted for 15.7% of finished-steel imports in the first six months of 2026. Türkiye’s shipments declined 16% year on year during the same period. At the same time, deliveries from China rose 40%, while shipments from Indonesia increased 70%.
EU import volumes shift as market contracts
The drop in Türkiye’s shipments coincided with a contraction in the broader EU steel import market. The lower volumes do not, on their own, indicate that carbon-related costs reduced competitiveness across all steel products. The comparison is therefore influenced by overall import demand and supplier mix changes.
EU buyers also consider how production conditions affect emissions-related calculations. Türkiye’s proximity to European markets can shorten transport times and support established customer relationships. Some Turkish facilities use electric-arc furnaces, which can produce different emissions profiles compared with other production routes.
CBAM liability depends on product-specific emissions inputs
Electric-arc-furnace capacity alone does not determine a product’s CBAM liability. The assessment depends on the specific steel product, scrap and other precursor materials used, furnace operations, direct process emissions, and the applicable production benchmark. Electricity procurement can also influence industrial costs and carbon reporting.
European buyers may treat emissions information quality as an additional comparison factor between suppliers. Imports assessed using applicable default emissions values may face higher calculated carbon liabilities than products supported by verified actual data. In cases where traceability is incomplete, a Turkish exporter could face a less favourable cost position than competitors elsewhere.
The commercial comparison increasingly relies on documented product-level emissions rather than country of origin alone. This affects how offers are evaluated when calculated carbon liabilities differ across supply chains. It also shapes what information is needed for carbon-adjusted cost comparisons.
EU duty-free quota limits from July 2026
Steel-specific trade measures add another element to cost calculations for Turkish exporters. From July 2026, the EU’s annual duty-free steel import quota was limited to approximately 18.3 million tonnes. A 50% out-of-quota duty applies to imports exceeding the relevant allowances.
Türkiye’s established commercial relationship with the EU does not remove the need to verify whether each steel product qualifies under applicable country-specific allocation rules. It also requires checking whether sufficient quota capacity remains available for particular shipments.
Quota access and CBAM exposure affect different components of import costs. European customers are therefore expected to consider both tariff treatment and carbon-related liability when comparing offers from Turkish mills and competing international suppliers. The two elements can change together depending on shipment characteristics and documentation.
Downstream CBAM expansion proposed for 2028
The compliance scope could broaden beyond basic steel if CBAM is extended to selected downstream products. The mechanism could extend emissions-related obligations to Turkish manufacturers of metal components, equipment, and fabricated goods. The European Commission proposed extending CBAM to selected downstream products from 2028.
The European Parliament supported a broader product list in September 2026. Negotiations are ongoing on final product scope, implementation timing, and detailed rules for accounting for precursor emissions. These elements determine how upstream inputs translate into downstream obligations.
For Turkish industrial groups supplying both basic steel and finished products, maintaining connected records becomes more important under proposed changes. Records would need to cover the producing mill, product classification, embedded emissions, downstream processing, and the EU importer. This links production data to downstream processing steps used in import declarations.
Contracting increasingly focuses on verified emissions documentation
European customers are expected to place greater emphasis on data quality and verification when negotiating purchasing contracts. Contract terms may address allocation of carbon costs and accuracy of emissions declarations. They may also include remedies where submitted information proves incorrect.
The contracting requirements can affect relationships between steel producers, downstream manufacturers, and importers. This is especially relevant where final CBAM liability depends on installation-specific information or how precursor materials are treated in calculations. Documentation expectations therefore influence how costs are allocated across supply chains.
Türkiye retains logistical advantages tied to its finished-steel import volume in Europe. Maintaining that position is described as increasingly dependent on verified carbon-adjusted delivered cost alongside transport efficiency, product specifications, and access to available tariff quotas.