China and Indonesia increased steel shipments to the European Union in the first half of 2026, while deliveries from several established suppliers declined. The changes took place as European steel demand remained weak. Import competition was shaped by carbon pricing, safeguard quotas and changes in manufacturing activity.
EU steel imports fell 5% year on year to approximately 34 million tonnes in the first six months of 2026, according to EUROFER. Finished steel imports declined by 3%. The aggregate figures nonetheless masked substantial differences between supplying countries.
Indonesia and China expand shipments as other suppliers lose ground
Deliveries from Indonesia rose 70% over the first half of 2026. Shipments from China increased 40% during the same period. By contrast, imports from Türkiye decreased 16%, while deliveries from South Korea fell 8%.
Türkiye remained the largest supplier of finished steel to the EU, with a 15.7% share of import volumes. China followed with 12.3%, and South Korea accounted for 12%. Indonesia represented 8.8%, while India supplied 7.7%.
CBAM timing, safeguard quota openings and inventory effects
The changes in supplier rankings do not, on their own, show that CBAM redirected European steel trade. EU importers brought forward purchases ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase, which started on 1 January 2026. Inventory movements and safeguard quota openings also affected procurement, particularly for hot-rolled coil.
From July 2026, a separate EU steel regulation restricted tariff-free import access to about 18.3 million tonnes annually. The same measure increased the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. These steps affect the cost of imported steel independently of carbon liabilities under CBAM.
The interaction between carbon pricing and trade restrictions means import competitiveness cannot be judged only by shipment volume changes. Quota availability and applicable tariffs influence landed costs alongside emissions-related obligations attached to covered products.
Product mix shifts complicate comparisons across suppliers
Differences in the distribution of steel products across suppliers complicate comparisons between national importers. Imports of hot-rolled wide strip rose 14% in the first half of 2026. Deliveries of cold-rolled sheet, sections and several long steel products declined.
A supplier can increase its share of finished-steel imports by expanding flat steel deliveries while losing ground in construction-related products. Broad customs statistics covering HS 72 should not be treated as directly equivalent to EUROFER’s finished-product import volumes when assessing market shares.
The composition of shipments also matters for evaluating competitive positioning at country and producer level. Aggregate figures can mask differences between product segments where imports rise and segments where demand falls.
Default emissions factors and CBAM reference price changes
CBAM adds additional differentiation between suppliers through country- and product-specific emissions factors used by the European Commission. Producers can replace default values with verified, installation-specific emissions data.
The certificate reference price changed during 2026, reaching €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent in the third quarter. This compares with €75.28 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent in the second quarter.
The reference price alone does not determine the final CBAM cost per tonne of imported steel. Benchmark deductions and carbon prices already paid in the country of production affect the amount due, so the certificate price should not be interpreted as a uniform surcharge per tonne.
Tariff access, verification requirements and financing considerations
European steel buyers must evaluate whether shipments can enter within available tariff quotas. They also need to consider whether emissions documentation can withstand verification under CBAM requirements. Buyers must assess whether purchase prices compensate for both trade-related and carbon-related risks.
For banks financing steel inventories, delivery delays and uncertainty over emissions data can be as significant as any apparent price advantage versus domestically produced material.
Developments in the second half of 2026 will indicate whether gains recorded by China and Indonesia continue after year-end inventory effects unwind and tighter import quotas take effect.