EUROFER reported that Chinese steel imports rose 40% year on year in the first half of 2026, while Indonesian shipments increased by 70%. Total EU steel imports fell by 5% over the same period. Türkiye remained the EU’s largest supplier of finished steel as Serbian exporters operated amid weaker demand and a new EU steel trade measure introduced in July.
For Serbian metals companies, access to European customers depends on more than factory-gate pricing. Import tariffs, customs requirements and CBAM liabilities affect the delivered cost into the EU market. The competitive conditions are also shaped by expanding Asian steel supplier presence and tighter EU import restrictions.
Steel supply chain requirements and CBAM calculation factors
Serbia’s steel industry includes HBIS Serbia’s integrated works in Smederevo. Producers and processors also include Metalfer Steel Mill. CBAM exposure for exported goods depends on the precise customs classification and the rules applicable to each product category.
Operating in the metals sector does not automatically mean every exported item falls within the CBAM mechanism. For steel, carbon liability depends on the production route, product category, precursor inputs and verified direct embedded emissions. European customers using applicable default values may calculate different costs compared with cases supported by validated, installation-specific emissions data.
The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price is €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. The reference price makes accurate emissions calculations part of commercial planning for cross-border trade. A generic carbon surcharge cannot reflect differences between products, production facilities or applicable calculation rules.
EU steel quotas add shipment-specific cost exposure
Serbian steel exporters also need to account for an annual duty-free EU import quota of approximately 18.3 million tonnes. A 50% out-of-quota duty applies to relevant steel categories under the quota framework.
The cost impact for an individual shipment depends on country and product allocations, customs origin and remaining quota capacity. These factors can affect import costs more immediately than changes in the quarterly CBAM certificate reference price. Exporters and European customers are therefore required to assess tariff exposure and carbon liabilities separately.
A shipment’s eligibility for preferential tariff treatment does not by itself determine its CBAM obligations. Customs origin and quota capacity influence tariff outcomes, while CBAM obligations depend on emissions-related requirements tied to product classification and applicable rules.
Aluminium emissions accounting differs from steel
Serbia’s aluminium industry includes Impol Seval, alongside companies that transform rolled metal into industrial products. The accounting framework for aluminium differs from that for steel under CBAM-related rules.
Aluminium production is particularly exposed to electricity costs, but indirect emissions from purchased electricity are not automatically included in the current CBAM charge for aluminium. Direct process emissions, upstream inputs covered by applicable rules and correct product classification remain central to determining carbon liability.
This distinction is relevant for factories promoting products as low-carbon when they purchase renewable electricity. Electricity procurement alone does not establish the emissions value used for CBAM calculations. Serbian aluminium exporters therefore need to separate emissions information used for broader environmental claims from data required under the mechanism’s specific accounting rules.
Downstream expansion proposals and compliance documentation needs
Serbian manufacturers of metal-intensive finished goods also face proposed changes to CBAM coverage from 2028. The mechanism is expected to extend to selected downstream products, with some manufactured goods potentially entering scope while others are already covered.
The final list remains subject to EU negotiations after amendments supported by the European Parliament in September 2026. Until scope and detailed requirements are settled, manufacturers need to assess exposure against applicable rules for each product rather than assume uniform treatment across downstream metal goods.
For Serbian steel and aluminium exporters, compliance records must connect material origin, production-facility information, emissions calculations and allocation of products to EU customers. Accurate documentation and verification can help buyers distinguish between suppliers and calculate their obligations more precisely as pricing and delivery reliability interact with evidence requirements in European supply chains.