Serbian cement producers are set to operate under two trade conditions in 2026: domestic import restrictions and the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The domestic measures are designed to protect the local market, while CBAM increases the importance of verified emissions performance for exports to the EU.
Tariff quotas extended through end-2026
Serbia has extended tariff quotas covering Portland cement and selected steel products until the end of 2026. Under the original allocation, approximately 250,350 tonnes were assigned to cement. Imports that exceed the quota may be subject to an additional 50% duty, on top of standard customs treatment.
CBAM compliance hinges on clinker-linked emissions
The EU’s CBAM presents a separate challenge for cement exporters. Cement is described as a complex CBAM product because clinker, a key input in cement production, is itself a CBAM precursor. As a result, both direct and indirect emissions can influence reported embedded emissions.
Reported embedded emissions can be affected by fuel consumption, process emissions, electricity use and clinker content. This means that product-level performance depends on multiple input and production variables. For Serbian producers exporting to the EU, competitiveness increasingly relies on demonstrating emissions intensity below applicable default values.
Two-border competitiveness equation for Serbian producers
The domestic quota framework can help stabilize prices and protect local production capacity from import surges. At the same time, EU market access depends on providing evidence that meets verification requirements under CBAM. This creates a two-border set of constraints for producers selling into different markets.
Investments aimed at decarbonisation can affect operating costs and corporate emissions. Measures mentioned include alternative fuels, energy efficiency, lower clinker ratios and renewable electricity. Their value for EU trade also depends on whether resulting emissions data can be documented within the prescribed CBAM production boundary.
Precursor data verification and financing considerations
The European Commission’s latest guidance places additional emphasis on precursor data. When clinker is sourced from another installation, using actual emissions values requires a verification report that the cement verifier can rely on. Without sufficient supporting evidence, producers may need to use default values.
The distinction between domestic quotas and CBAM also affects financing decisions. Lenders assessing Serbian cement producers are described as needing to evaluate domestic market protection separately from exposure to EU export costs. Import quotas may support margins in Serbia, while CBAM can affect export returns and the commercial value of investments in lower-carbon production.
Overall, Serbia’s cement industry faces two different measures of competitiveness: protection against imports in its domestic market and verifiable carbon performance when selling into the European Union.