The European Commission has set the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism certificate price at EUR 82.32 per tonne of CO₂ for the third quarter of 2026. The figure is higher than EUR 75.28 in the second quarter and EUR 75.36 in the first quarter. The change corresponds to an increase of approximately 9.4% from April-June.
The quarterly update is linked to how EU Emissions Trading System auction prices feed into carbon-cost calculations for imported industrial goods. For manufacturers and importers, the movement affects how verified emissions intensity is used in procurement and delivered-cost assessments.
CBAM reference price and how it applies to covered imports
The published EUR 82.32 rate does not operate as a flat charge on every tonne of imported steel, aluminium or cement. Instead, it is the price of a tonne of qualifying carbon emissions used in the calculations.
The number of certificates required depends on embedded emissions and multiple calculation elements. These include the applicable free-allocation adjustment, the emissions calculation methodology, eligibility for deductions tied to carbon prices paid abroad, and whether the product is within CBAM coverage.
As a result, two shipments of the same product can show different gross carbon exposure when production processes generate different emissions. Transitional arrangements also mean that the immediate 2026 liability for industrial imports may be substantially below the gross value implied by the quarterly reference price.
Emissions intensity links product output to carbon reference values
The relationship between product emissions and the quarterly certificate price can be illustrated using a direct conversion. At EUR 82.32 per tonne of CO₂, one tonne of qualifying emissions corresponds to a gross carbon reference value of EUR 82.32 before applicable adjustments.
For a process emitting 0.5 tonnes of CO₂ per unit, the gross reference value is EUR 41.16 per unit. At an emissions intensity of 1.5 tonnes, the illustrative value rises to EUR 123.48.
These figures are described as illustrative carbon equivalents rather than final CBAM assessments or payable liabilities. They are intended to show how differences in verified production emissions can affect comparisons between suppliers offering similar industrial goods.
Electricity imports use a different calculation profile
Imported electricity follows a different calculation profile under CBAM rules described in the source material. Imported electricity does not receive the industrial free-allocation adjustment, so the emissions factor attributed to each imported megawatt-hour becomes particularly important.
Using an assumed emissions factor of 0.5 tonnes of CO₂ per MWh, the gross reference value is EUR 41.16/MWh. With an emissions factor of 0.9 tonnes per MWh, the illustrative value becomes EUR 74.09/MWh.
The treatment depends on applicable calculation rules, supporting emissions evidence, and eligible deductions for carbon payments. The source material states that a generator cannot establish a lower emissions factor merely by declaring low actual emissions; relevant requirements must be met.
Procurement and documentation based on verified plant data
The difference in carbon intensity between suppliers can be commercially significant for industrial procurement teams relative to the headline certificate price alone. At EUR 82.32/tCO₂, an emissions difference of 0.4 tonnes corresponds to a gross carbon-reference difference of EUR 32.93 per unit, before adjustments.
The source material says that where differences are supported by credible installation-level data, they can support supplier negotiations against competing producers. It also notes that unsupported or unverified low-carbon claims may leave buyers needing to account for default emissions values.
This distinction remains relevant even while free-allocation adjustments moderate industrial CBAM liabilities during the initial phase described in the source material. It further states that the value of lower verified emissions can become more significant as transition arrangements progress.
Separating gross references, free allocation and payable obligations
The source material advises importers preparing cost comparisons to keep three figures separate: the gross carbon reference value, the applicable free-allocation adjustment, and the estimated payable CBAM obligation. It states that combining these elements into a single carbon-cost figure can obscure assumptions behind calculations.
For exporters, it says both actual-emissions and default-value scenarios are needed before committing to carbon-adjusted delivered prices. A facility with reliable actual emissions records and evidence of eligible domestic carbon payments may show lower net exposure than a competitor relying on default values.
The same guidance indicates that a plant with particularly high direct emissions could face a different outcome depending on which scenario applies.
Quarterly pricing ties certificate references to shipment timing
The timing of certificate purchases adds another requirement for importers’ calculations under CBAM described in the source material. Certificates covering emissions from 2026 imports will become available for purchase from February 2027.
The applicable reference price is linked to the quarter in which goods entered the EU. The source material warns that using a current spot allowance quotation as a substitute for the relevant quarterly CBAM price can lead to applying an incorrect reference to imports.
It also states that accurate shipment dates, customs declarations, and quarter-specific emissions records are necessary to maintain a reliable liability ledger.
Information needs for EU customers and recognition of eligible payments
The source material describes exporters’ commercial priority as providing EU customers with installation and product-level emissions information supporting relevant calculations. It also says documentation of eligible carbon payments made in the country of production can affect net exposure where those payments meet applicable recognition requirements.
The quarterly CBAM price series is characterized as becoming an industrial market reference alongside exchange rates, electricity prices and freight costs. While it does not determine competitiveness for an individual shipment by itself, it assigns a transparent euro value to qualifying emissions entering EU import calculations.