The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, up from €75.28 in the second quarter and €75.36 in the first. The rise sharpens working-capital and hedging questions for companies importing goods covered by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) before certificate purchases begin.
The certificate price is derived from auction prices in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), linking movements in the European carbon market to the eventual cost of industrial imports. Companies incur CBAM obligations through goods imported in 2026, but purchases on the common central platform are scheduled to start in February 2027.
Importers must submit their first annual CBAM declarations and surrender certificates by 30 September 2027. They need to estimate liabilities ahead of the final cash settlement and decide whether expected certificate costs should be reflected in sales prices, credit lines or commercial guarantees.
Import and emissions uncertainty affects liabilities
The amount due depends on import volumes, verified or default emissions, free-allocation adjustments and any eligible deduction for a carbon price paid in the country of origin. Emissions can differ between installations or production batches even when metal contracts specify quantities in tonnes. Cancellations, deferred deliveries or substitute supplies can also alter projected certificate requirements.
An EU emissions allowance futures contract is not an exact hedge for a particular CBAM liability. EU ETS instruments may help manage the general carbon-price component, but basis differences, timing and calculation risks remain. Treasury teams should account for those mismatches rather than assume a one-for-one position eliminates exposure.
For trade finance, banks should request regular reconciliation of imports and emissions instead of relying on a single carbon-cost estimate prepared at the start of a contract. Importers can combine quarterly forecasts with supplier verification, approved price assumptions and explicit pass-through clauses.
Finance teams should stress-test high and low carbon-price scenarios, delayed documentation and changes in supply origin. For large metals and fertiliser importers, the objective is to avoid an unexpected cash requirement in 2027 while retaining commercial flexibility to compete for customers through an uncertain industrial cycle.