Chinese shipments of finished steel to the European Union increased during the first six months of 2026, even as overall EU steel import demand weakened. EUROFER reported that deliveries rose 40% year on year in that period. China accounted for 12.3% of EU finished-steel imports by volume.
Separate Eurostat data for the broader HS 72 category show a different measure of trade. China’s share of EU steel import value rose from about 5% in 2021 to 11% in 2025. The two indicators reflect different aspects of trade flows and are not presented as a single statistical series.
Production routes and emissions evidence under CBAM
Chinese producers supply European customers with flat steel, coated sheet and specialised downstream materials. Manufacturing scale and industrial integration can affect production costs, while emissions intensity varies by installation, fuel use, production route and precursor materials. These factors influence the carbon profile associated with specific products.
Customs origin does not determine emissions for a tonne of steel. Products originating in China may be produced through different routes, including blast-furnace steelmaking and electric-arc production, each with its own emissions profile. As a result, emissions evidence is tied to how the product is made rather than where it is declared to originate.
Under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), importers can use European Commission default values where applicable or use verified actual data to establish embedded emissions. The approach selected affects the calculation of embedded emissions and the resulting carbon liability. Importers therefore need to align documentation and reporting choices with the applicable CBAM rules.
For a representative hot-rolled steel classification, published calculations based on third-quarter 2026 default values show a materially higher illustrative carbon cost for Chinese steel than for comparable Turkish or Serbian material. The comparison is not described as a national average for Chinese steel. It points to the potential importance of installation-specific emissions data, relevant production benchmarks and deductions for carbon costs already paid.
EU safeguard quotas from July 2026 affect import economics
Carbon-related obligations are only one part of the competitive challenge facing Chinese exporters into Europe. A separate EU steel trade measure applies from July 2026, setting about 18.3 million tonnes of annual tariff-free import quotas. Imports above the quota level face a 50% duty.
The final cost for imported steel can be influenced by how quota volumes are allocated by product and country of origin. Requirements for origin traceability also affect compliance costs and access to quota entitlements. Even if producer pricing is modestly lower, restricted quota access can add expense that offsets that advantage.
European importers, therefore, need to evaluate more than the quoted price per tonne when assessing landed costs. Tariff treatment, product classification, origin documentation and CBAM exposure all feed into the commercial calculation for each shipment. These elements interact in determining total costs at the point of import.
Potential downstream CBAM expansion and supplier documentation
A proposed extension of CBAM to selected downstream products would broaden coverage beyond basic steel and aluminium. The proposal would extend carbon-related requirements to manufactured goods containing these materials. It would also bring precursor emissions accounting into purchasing decisions involving machinery, hardware and fabricated products exported from China.
The wider product list remains under negotiation and is not yet binding legislation. Its eventual scope will determine which downstream goods face additional compliance requirements and how emissions associated with steel and aluminium inputs are accounted for under CBAM. For Chinese manufacturers supplying European markets, this could add another compliance dimension alongside production and export costs.
The treatment of precursor materials could become relevant to carbon calculations applied to covered manufactured products if the proposal proceeds as described. For producers seeking to strengthen their position in Europe, more detailed production records may be required alongside installation-level carbon calculations. Longer-term supply agreements with European buyers are also identified as part of strengthening documentation readiness.
Verified emissions can help distinguish individual production facilities rather than treating all material from one country as having an identical carbon profile. Exporters may also redirect shipments toward markets with less restrictive quota access or lower carbon-related costs, although any trade diversion would need confirmation through observed trade data rather than assumptions based on regulatory differences.
The competitive position of Chinese steel in Europe is therefore linked to both export volumes and production costs, as well as emissions evidence available for individual products and facilities. Material assessed using default emissions values may face different carbon-cost outcomes compared with verified low-emission steel even when both originate in China.