European fertiliser importers are managing carbon-border charges together with tariffs, natural gas price volatility and concerns about reliance on a limited number of external suppliers. The combined effect is increasing the complexity of sourcing decisions as buyers consider emissions, availability and delivered prices.
Early-2026 ammonia trade data point to shifts in supply flows. S&P Global shipping figures show EU seaborne ammonia imports at about 717,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, down from 787,000 tonnes in the previous quarter. US shipments declined from roughly 90,000 tonnes to 40,000 tonnes, while Algeria accounted for around 30% of first-quarter arrivals.
Market participants linked part of the US shipment decline to the default emissions treatment under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). These figures cover seaborne ammonia rather than the full range of fertilisers or all EU import categories. Ammonia, nitrogenous fertilisers and other CBAM-covered goods use different customs classifications and production routes.
Phosphate and potash fertilisers cannot be automatically included in carbon-exposure estimates solely because they are agricultural inputs. Assessments require product-specific classifications and data to reflect differences across goods covered by CBAM.
Natural gas feedstock and plant-level emissions data
Natural gas remains a major feedstock and cost driver in conventional ammonia production. The emissions profile of a plant depends on operational efficiency, fuel use, the hydrogen production route and how relevant upstream inputs are treated.
Where CBAM rules allow verified actual figures, producers with credible installation-specific emissions data may be able to show a lower embedded-emissions footprint than default values. Access to reliable production information can therefore affect comparisons between competing suppliers.
The approach for fertilisers also differs from other CBAM sectors. The European Commission’s default-value mark-up for fertilisers is not the same as mark-ups applied to steel, cement and aluminium. Cross-sector comparisons using default-value adjustments without accounting for differing rules can produce misleading conclusions about relative carbon costs.
CBAM certificate reference price and liability components
The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price was €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. While this reference price influences the economics of covered imports, it does not determine an importer’s total liability on its own.
Total calculations also depend on applicable free-allocation benchmarks, the emissions figures accepted under the rules and any recognised carbon payments made in the country of production. Importers are required to consider these elements alongside natural gas supply risks, freight charges, trade-defence measures and any relevant product-specific customs duties.
A lower certificate-related cost does not necessarily result in the lowest overall purchase price. Gas prices, production efficiency and logistics can materially affect which ammonia supplier is most competitive.
Trade measures affecting diversification choices
EU policy toward Russian and Belarusian fertiliser imports adds another variable to procurement decisions. Duties and diversification measures can push buyers toward alternative suppliers, including producers whose emissions advantages may be small or not yet verified.
Changes in trade flows need careful interpretation because a declining share for a given origin does not automatically indicate that CBAM is responsible. Tariffs, energy prices, shipping costs and supply availability can also influence purchasing decisions.
Short-term increases in fertiliser prices can add political pressure because higher input costs affect farmers’ production budgets. For importers and distributors, this increases the need to separate carbon-pricing effects from broader trade and energy-market developments.
Supplier data requirements for contracting and financing
European fertiliser distributors may increasingly require reliable supplier emissions data as part of annual contracting. This would sit alongside product specifications, delivery schedules and credit terms.
Contracts that provide access to relevant production information could help importers assess potential CBAM exposure and compare offers more consistently. Financing inventory ahead of the planting season also requires attention to potential carbon liabilities.
Distributors may face timing mismatches between import-related costs and their ability to pass those costs on to farmers. This risk can be higher when demand is price-sensitive or when supply contracts limit immediate price adjustments.
Aligning embedded-emissions incentives with supply needs
Europe’s goals of securing affordable fertiliser supplies while reducing embedded emissions do not automatically align. Buyers need sufficient nitrogen products at workable prices as CBAM creates incentives to account for carbon emissions and, where supported by applicable rules, favour lower-emission production.
The commercial outcome depends on how carbon costs interact with energy prices, trade measures and supplier data quality. Producers able to deliver reliably while providing verifiable emissions information may be positioned to maintain durable relationships with European customers.