Energy has become one of the most strategically sensitive components of Serbia’s EU accession process, not because of legislative transposition alone, but because electricity markets now function as a real-world test of regulatory discipline, institutional independence and economic resilience. Chapters related to energy, competition, climate policy and state aid converge in the power sector, making its performance a bellwether for Serbia’s broader accession credibility.
Serbia has formally established its policy framework through the adoption of its Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan, covering the period to 2030 with a long-term outlook to 2050. The plan sets a target of 45 percent renewable electricity generation by 2030, alongside commitments to energy-efficiency improvements and greenhouse-gas reduction aligned with EU climate objectives. Legislative amendments to the Energy Law and the Renewable Energy Law have largely transposed the core elements of the EU electricity acquis, including market opening, balancing responsibility and competitive renewable support schemes.
From an EU perspective, the critical issue is no longer formal alignment, but implementation credibility. Serbia remains a Contracting Party of the Energy Community, where it has achieved relatively advanced transposition status compared with regional peers. However, accession assessments increasingly focus on whether market rules operate without political intervention, whether regulators and system operators act independently, and whether price formation reflects genuine supply-demand dynamics. Electricity is therefore treated as an operational stress test rather than a checklist item.
Market integration is a decisive accession milestone. Serbia is preparing for day-ahead electricity market coupling with Hungary and Bulgaria, targeted for late 2026. Successful coupling would integrate Serbia into the EU pricing zone architecture, improving liquidity, transparency and cross-border trade efficiency. It would also reduce exposure to future carbon-related border measures by demonstrating functional alignment with the EU internal electricity market. Any delay or partial implementation would materially weaken Serbia’s accession narrative and increase trade-related compliance risks.
Structurally, Serbia’s power system remains dominated by lignite-based thermal generation, anchored by large plants such as the Kostolac complex with more than 1,000 MW of installed capacity. This legacy provides baseload stability but complicates decarbonisation and increases capital intensity of the transition. EU institutions view this dependence not as an immediate disqualifier, but as a risk factor requiring clear transition sequencing, credible replacement capacity and disciplined state-aid governance.
Renewable-energy policy reform has accelerated over the past three years. Serbia has replaced feed-in tariffs with auction-based market premiums, aligning support mechanisms with EU state-aid principles. The government has announced a multi-year auction framework targeting approximately 1,000 MW of wind capacity and 300 MW of solar capacity, supported through competitive bidding. This framework is designed to reduce fiscal exposure while attracting institutional capital, but its success depends on grid readiness and permitting discipline.
From an accession standpoint, energy thus functions as a convergence point. Demonstrated success in auction delivery, market coupling and system balancing would materially strengthen Serbia’s negotiating position across multiple chapters. Conversely, persistent intervention, opaque capacity allocation or grid-related delays would signal structural governance weaknesses extending well beyond the energy sector.
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